Let me start off by saying that there are no guarantees whatsoever with this spreadsheet. Trading futures involves risk. That means you can loose money!! If you decide to use the signals generated in this spreadsheet, do not complain to me if you loose money. But if you do make money with it, I'd love to hear about it.
If you like this spreadsheet and want to see more of them please send me $5 (or a 12-pack o' beer) to:
Kevin Riley - KOR Trader
1300 Adams St # 24C
Costa Mesa, CA 92626
I am a registered commodity broker so if you would like to talk to me about market strategy or need a broker, E-Mail me KOR Trader@AOL or call me toll free 1-800-777-0058.
I decided to develop this system after reading "Capturing Full-Trend Profits in the Commodities Futures Markets" by Colon Alexander. The system he describes is called the Wellspring System and is based on simple chart patterns or "footprints" that give insight to where the market might be heading. This is a simple adaptation of that system.
This spreadsheet will analyze Commodity price data and will kick out buy/sell recommendations and compute a reasonable stop-loss. The last part of the spreadsheet will determine the profitability of the position after ten trading days if it wasn't stopped out. At the bottom, it will give you the totals for each signal. I know this is a very limited test but it can be interesting. The real test is to paper trade using your own criteria for exiting the market. Also, it will assume that you entered the market on the open of the next day. (Another limitation, if you don't like, change it!)
I haven't tested this system on all markets or stock data. I have found the performance to be good in some markets and poor in others. I suggest you test the markets you like to trade. You can also use this spreadsheet as a tool in creating your own system.
INSTRUCTIONS
There are three files, this one, KOR Temp, and KOR Temp Macro. You do not need to change the names of these files. Be sure to keep at leased "KOR Temp" and "KOR Temp Macro" in the same folder.
Also you will need to have historical price data in ASCII format tab Delimited in the following order:
Date, Open, High, Low, Close, Volume, Open Interest
When you open KOR Temp, press the button that says "Get Data". Select the data file you want to use and open it. It will look like nothing is happening so watch the lower left corner (Status Window) to see what's going on. When its done getting the data and recalculating the worksheet, it will prompt you to enter the name of the new file. That's all there is to it! (Pretty tough eh?)
Look in the Buy/Sell column to see if there is a signal for that day. The reason the signal was given can be seen in the columns to the left.
Because of the amount of calculations involved with this spreadsheet, you might want to keep the data under 200 trading days. If you get an alert that says that the selection is too big for undo, don't worry, just click "Ok" and it will continue. You might want to get up and get a cup of coffee or something at this point because it will take a few minutes (Much less time is involved if you are running a Power Mac/ Excel 5.0). Also, you might run the risk of running out of memory if you try to input a large amount of data. If you have a lot of RAM and a lot of data you want to test, increase the memory allocation for Excel in the Info Box.
Updates:
First, I updated the look. It's much prettier now. I have changed the way it saves. Before, it would save twice and that takes a long time when there is a lot of data.
I have totally gotten rid of the "Lindahl" signal. I don't think it was a good trading signal. All Signals now have to be confirmed with the moving averages. That means all "Buys" must be confirmed with the 18 Day MA above the 29 Day MA and all "Sells" with the 18 day under the 29 day MA.
remember that this is just a filter and that filters work good in some markets and poor in others. You can play around with the MA's and see if you can get better results. Also, I reduced the 5 closes to 3 Closes. This seemed to test out a little better.
I have put a little time into this so even if you don't send me $5, I still would like to hear from anyone who likes this Spreadsheet. If you register I will send you 2 years of nearest futures data for about 39 markets in Excel format.
